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Full partnership is not the end of the road. As we develop more trust with our partners, as we achieve predetermined worthwhile goals, as our desire to benefit personally from the arrangement is sustained, our commitment deepens. Partnerships can revert to earlier stages— back to reassessing needs and redefining what we want from our partners.

Just as we reestablish a Norm stage following a return to the Storm stage, we can recommit to a partnership that we have chosen to redirect. In both cases, the establishment of trust sustains the partners through setbacks and potential turmoil.

Our commitment to a full partnership, therefore, is not a final destination, but an ongoing process. The relationships are performing, the synergies are generating mutual benefits, and the partnership becomes increasingly well-established. Sustaining its growth is the challenge. At this point we may want to do some strategic planning. This planning can be done within the boundaries of the partnership to create a mutual future, or it can be done in a larger arena. Many companies present organizationwide “future search” conferences where they invite their partners to try to envision what their partnerships will look like five or ten or twenty years down the road. The more mutual the planning, the deeper the relationship. Trust is a catalyst propelling people into the creative zone.

Direction of equity markets. The current state of the equity market has an effect on default rates because it determines asset values, investor’s sentiment towards risky assets and the accessibility of capital markets for companies.

Age effect of bonds. The likelihood of payment default by a bond issuer can change with decreasing time to maturity. At the time of issuance, the new issuer has abundant cash and payment default is easily avoided. In addition it is quite common to put some restricted cash from the issuance into an account to cover the first 3–4 coupon payments. Over time the “hazard rate” grows as cash reserves gained through the bond issue are used. The critical period is reached when the success of the firm is least certain and the hazard rate is at a maximum. However, after corporate plans are successfully implemented and sufficient profit has been generated to offset debt, the critical phase is past and the likelihood of payment default declines rapidly. Several empirical studies show that the critical time after first issues is approximately 3 years after issuance for B-rated bonds and climbs to approximately 4 years for BB-rated bonds. The amount of defaults drops significantly after the critical period of the first 3–4 years is survived by the issuer.

Quality of new issue volume. An important measure for the quality of the high-yield market is the percentage amount of new issuance being used to refinance debt. During periods of balance sheet repair (1990–93 and 2001–03) the percentage of total new issue volume will reach high levels.

Corporate bond markets typically reward companies for stable revenues and earnings. However, empirical evidence shows that in times of high risk appetite and positive expectations for future economic growth, companies with rather volatile revenues tend to outperform. That is because when there is a lot of optimism on revenue growth, companies with volatile revenues usually benefit the most. Similarly, for companies with a history of high earnings volatility, the probability for a margin expansion is particularly high as the economy recovers. Therefore, if the market expects a cyclical recovery, corporate bonds from cyclical sectors tend to outperform due to the companies’ high degree of operating leverage.