Joint efforts in credit planning

After completing the steps described above, you are equipped to begin your strategic planning. You’ll also need to use the information you gathered from your internal assessment. But probably the most valuable information you’ll need at this point is your Organizational Process Model because this will help you and your partner determine how to integrate the two organization processes to provide the value-added component for which your partnership was created.

As you build trust through your joint efforts in strategic planning, you can begin to share information and resources with each other. I know of a french fry producer who liked the potatoes of a certain farmer in Idaho. Unfortunately, the potato farmer could not produce the number of potatoes required by the producer because he didn’t have enough acreage. So the producer bought a nearby parcel of land for the farmer to use, and over a ten-year contract the land became the farmer’s property. Both sides benefited: the farmer received a fair price for the potatoes he produced on the land; the producer increased his supply of potatoes. Partners who invest in each other’s success both achieve more.

Direction of equity credit markets

61Direction of equity markets. The current state of the equity market has an effect on default rates because it determines asset values, investor’s sentiment towards risky assets and the accessibility of capital markets for companies.

Age effect of bonds. The likelihood of payment default by a bond issuer can change with decreasing time to maturity. At the time of issuance, the new issuer has abundant cash and payment default is easily avoided. In addition it is quite common to put some restricted cash from the issuance into an account to cover the first 3–4 coupon payments. Over time the “hazard rate” grows as cash reserves gained through the bond issue are used. The critical period is reached when the success of the firm is least certain and the hazard rate is at a maximum. However, after corporate plans are successfully implemented and sufficient profit has been generated to offset debt, the critical phase is past and the likelihood of payment default declines rapidly. Several empirical studies show that the critical time after first issues is approximately 3 years after issuance for B-rated bonds and climbs to approximately 4 years for BB-rated bonds. The amount of defaults drops significantly after the critical period of the first 3–4 years is survived by the issuer.

Quality of new issue volume. An important measure for the quality of the high-yield market is the percentage amount of new issuance being used to refinance debt. During periods of balance sheet repair (1990–93 and 2001–03) the percentage of total new issue volume will reach high levels.

Stockbroker relationships are breaking up

As if it is not difficult enough to deal with employees siphoning off profits and market forces you cannot control, stocks are bought through a commissionhungry broker. A broker can be an individual you talk to, a telephone system, or a Web site. Nevertheless, your relationship with a broker can be troubling.

A broker makes money each time you buy or sell a stock. The broker profits from both commissions and the spread between the buy and sell price. For example, if you sell 1,000 shares of DUD for $10 each, you pay a commission ranging from $5 at a deep discount online broker to $200 at a full-service broker. The buyer of your shares pays anywhere from $10.02 a share to $10.20 a share. The difference between your selling price and the purchaser’s buying price is the spread. The broker and others pocket the spread in addition to your commissions and the purchaser’s commissions. It is in your broker’s interest for you to make as many transactions as possible.

It is not in your interest, because every transaction costs you money.

How swiftly can you process your emotions?

Stock prices will always be volatile. Every form of media extensively covers the stock market. As a result, stock prices are influenced by all major events, whether they are political, social, or economic. Elections, earthquakes, terrorists, unemployment, assassinations, foreign affairs, the dollar, war, peace, and much more: All send stock prices up and down.

During bubbles, extensive media coverage will lead you to be overconfident in your ability to pick stocks. If you are caught up in the herd hysteria, you may even reach a sense of grandiosity, believing yourself an investment genius. Addiction can take over as you constantly seek the high of easy money.

A sudden drop in stock prices triggers more troubling emotions. Some investors panic and sell everything. Panic is highly discouraged by those who make a living selling stocks. Investors who panic and sell out often feel guilty that they went against the advice of investment professionals. However, panic is the clearest sign that stocks are outside your comfort zone. A good panic can save you decades of trouble. Investors who panicked and sold in 1929 got over the guilt and had no regrets for the next 21 years.

Investors who panicked in 1966, 1970, and 1974 got over the guilt and had no regrets until the mid-1980s.

The investment emotions inventory

Step 2 explains in detail how you can gain self-knowledge from an emotions inventory. An emotions inventory is similar to a physical inventory of goods in a shop or investments in a portfolio. It is done for the same purpose as well. Goods that are defective must be discovered and discarded; investments that have no future must be liquidated. Emotions that prevent investment compatibility must be recognized and isolated to make room in the psyche for those that are functional. Thereafter you will be investing in your comfort zone.

This simple process has worked for me, an ordinary investor, and it will work for most of you. I do not claim any high level of emotional maturity or spiritual development. No one who knows me would describe me as a saint or a guru. I am not a trained therapist. I do not have an MBA. I am not a Certified Financial Planner, and I am not a Chartered Financial Analyst.

After 21 years of living off my investments and taking regular investment emotional inventories, I do know which investments work best with my personality and which investments irritate me or keep me awake at night. By staying in my comfort zone, investing is fun for me. It will be fun for you too, though you may not see that yet.

Legal Risks

Legal risk is an especially important case of unique risk in the United States, affecting companies of all sizes. First, a transaction on which one is relying may prove unenforceable in law. It may be a contract with a supplier, an insurance policy, or a regulation. Long-term supply contracts that seem to lock in a price may be difficult to enforce if the price moves significantly out of line with the market. The copyrights of publishers and musicians may be contested in the courts. Employment agreements can be challenged and often prove unenforceable in practice.

A second set of risks is exposure to lawsuits. There are many classes of suit that arise in the normal course of business. For the vast majority, the stakes are not material and are sometimes insurable. They arise from differences over contracts, auto and truck accidents, complaints against supervisors, and the like.

Collectively, these are an element of risk and an ongoing cost of business, but usually not a major concern for investors.

Financial Excess Interest

Excess interest represents the difference between the collateral weighted average mortgage rates and the weighted average cost of the liabilities, net of fees and expenses. Generally, the mortgage loans are expected to generate more interest than required to pay the liabilities.

To the extent that excess interest (net of fees, expenses or derivative payments) is positive, it is used to absorb losses on the mortgage loans. After the financial obligations of the trust are covered, excess interest is used to maintain overcollateralization at the target level.

Several factors could affect the extent to which excess interest is available to maintain overcollateralization:
Full or partial repayments and defaults may reduce the amount of excess interest. This is because borrowers with mortgage loans carrying higher WACs have a greater tendency to repay. This, in turn, reduces the weighted average rate of the underlying mortgage loan pool (this is commonly referred to as WAC drift).

If the rates of delinquencies, defaults or losses turn out to be higher than expected, excess interest will be reduced by the amount necessary to compensate for any shortfalls in the cash available to make required distributions to the senior and mezzanine certificates.