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Overall, the analysis suggests that credit spreads are highly correlated with the business cycle and that there is a leverage cycle that is closely related to macroeconomic activity variables. While carry-driven strategies may work most of the time, a thorough understanding of the leverage cycle helps to anticipate a harsh credit environment, even before it is reflected in GDP growth and equity performance. As the years 1997–2000 have shown, information from the equity markets is clearly not sufficient as an indicator of business and financial risks in the corporate sector. Most companies go through a regular cycle of leveraging and deleveraging, which is related to the profit and Capex cycle. Especially trends in mergers and acquisitions have a significant impact on the performance of credit markets.

Consequently, the concept of “safe” and “risky” companies loses its allure. Companies from sectors like utilities or noncyclical services that are considered safe today may increase leverage and be more risky tomorrow. On the other hand, highly leveraged companies may decide to deleverage and thus lower their business risk, like the European telecom sector in 2002 and 2003. Although the profit cycle is more pronounced in cyclical sectors, a credit cycle may be observed across virtually all industries. Credit markets react to this dynamic process through spread tightening and spread widening, thus causing investors mark-to-market profits or losses.

Operating leverage is the idea that companies can make more money from each additional sale if they do not have to increase fixed costs to produce more. In general, operating leverage refers to the fact that a lower ratio of variable cost per unit to price per unit causes profit to vary more with a change in the level of output than it would if this ratio was higher. So operating leverage is a function of fixed unit costs and output. The benefits of operating leverage unfold when business picks up. Then the existing workforce, plant and equipment can produce more without additional costs. Profit margins expand, and profits boom. Obviously, the profit of a business with a high degree of operating leverage varies more, everything else remaining the same, than do those profits of businesses with less operating leverage.

Greater variability of profits, of course, means that the credit risk is higher. Conversely, with a lower level of operating leverage, the business shows poor growth in profits as sales rise, but faces a lower risk of loss as sales decline.

Corporate bond markets typically reward companies for stable revenues and earnings. However, empirical evidence shows that in times of high risk appetite and positive expectations for future economic growth, companies with rather volatile revenues tend to outperform. That is because when there is a lot of optimism on revenue growth, companies with volatile revenues usually benefit the most. Similarly, for companies with a history of high earnings volatility, the probability for a margin expansion is particularly high as the economy recovers. Therefore, if the market expects a cyclical recovery, corporate bonds from cyclical sectors tend to outperform due to the companies’ high degree of operating leverage.

As if it is not difficult enough to deal with employees siphoning off profits and market forces you cannot control, stocks are bought through a commissionhungry broker. A broker can be an individual you talk to, a telephone system, or a Web site. Nevertheless, your relationship with a broker can be troubling.

A broker makes money each time you buy or sell a stock. The broker profits from both commissions and the spread between the buy and sell price. For example, if you sell 1,000 shares of DUD for $10 each, you pay a commission ranging from $5 at a deep discount online broker to $200 at a full-service broker. The buyer of your shares pays anywhere from $10.02 a share to $10.20 a share. The difference between your selling price and the purchaser’s buying price is the spread. The broker and others pocket the spread in addition to your commissions and the purchaser’s commissions. It is in your broker’s interest for you to make as many transactions as possible.

It is not in your interest, because every transaction costs you money.